What is NTRA's forecasted revenue?

Natera, inc. is forecasted to generate $4.10B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +51.3% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the NTRA revenue forecast model?

The model has 5.2% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $0.8B versus the actual $0.8B.

Natera, inc. NTRA

Revenue Intelligence Report • 49 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Natera, inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $753M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $4.1B across the next four quarters (+51.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 10.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$4.10B

+51.3% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$-4.19 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$2.01 per $1

Training Fit

5.2% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $833.3M vs the actual $752.8M — an error of 10.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$833.3M	$752.8M	$682.7M–$1.02B	+52.5%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$893.0M		$725.1M–$1.10B	+50.8%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$932.2M		$745.9M–$1.17B	+40.1%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$1.05B		$814.1M–$1.34B	+50.1%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$1.22B		$922.2M–$1.63B	+62.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Natera, inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.03	+3.0%	In line with trend	12
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9836	-1.6%	In line with trend	12
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9998	-0.0%	In line with trend	12
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0028	+0.3%	In line with trend	12

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 49 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.34x • R&D elasticity: 0.0536x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 10.7%.

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