What is NXT's forecasted revenue?

Nextpower Inc. is forecasted to generate $3.33B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -8.2% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the NXT revenue forecast model?

The model has 3.7% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $0.7B versus the actual $0.9B.

Nextpower Inc. NXT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 19 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-03

Nextpower Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $935M for the period ending 2026-07-03. The model projects $3.3B across the next four quarters (-8.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 24.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-03. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$3.33B

-8.2% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$-11.45 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$6.09 per $1

Training Fit

3.7% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2027): The model predicted $708.1M vs the actual $935.2M — an error of 24.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($935M) came in 24% above the spending-based forecast ($708M). This suggests that Nextpower Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2026-07-03	$708.1M	$935.2M	$646.4M–$769.7M	-18.1%	✗ Outside range
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2026-10-03	$868.5M		$781.4M–$955.7M	-4.1%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2027-01-03	$910.7M		$804.0M–$1.02B	+0.2%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2027-04-03	$910.6M		$787.4M–$1.03B	+3.4%
Q1 FY2028 Period end 2027-07-03	$642.7M		$504.9M–$780.6M	-31.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Nextpower Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Apr–Jun)	1.0054	+0.5%	In line with trend	3
FQ2 (Jul–Sep)	0.9923	-0.8%	In line with trend	4
FQ3 (Oct–Dec)	0.987	-1.3%	In line with trend	4
FQ4 (Jan–Mar)	1.0171	+1.7%	In line with trend	4

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 19 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.2606x • R&D elasticity: 0.1549x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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