What is O's forecasted revenue?

Realty Income Corporation is forecasted to generate $7.85B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +29.7% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the O revenue forecast model?

The model has 3.3% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.7B versus the actual $1.5B.

Realty Income Corporation O

Revenue Intelligence Report • 38 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Realty Income Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $1.5B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $7.9B across the next four quarters (+29.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 6.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$7.85B

+29.7% YoY

G&A Elasticity

1.05x

Training Fit

3.3% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.65B vs the actual $1.55B — an error of 6.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Realty Income Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$1.65B	$1.55B	$1.47B–$1.85B	+17.0%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$1.78B		$1.51B–$2.08B	+20.7%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$1.89B		$1.56B–$2.30B	+27.1%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$2.03B		$1.62B–$2.54B	+30.9%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$2.16B		$1.68B–$2.78B	+39.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Realty Income Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.013	+1.3%	In line with trend	9
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9807	-1.9%	In line with trend	9
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9865	-1.3%	In line with trend	9
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9947	-0.5%	In line with trend	9

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 38 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 1.2106x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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