What is ONC's forecasted revenue?

Beone Medicines ltd. is forecasted to generate $7.11B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +16.0% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the ONC revenue forecast model?

The model has 22.8% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.1B versus the actual $1.7B.

Beone Medicines ltd. ONC

Revenue Intelligence Report • 36 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Beone Medicines ltd.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.7B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $7.1B across the next four quarters (+16.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 22.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$7.11B

+16.0% YoY

R&D Elasticity

3.29x

SG&A Elasticity

1.14x

Training Fit

22.8% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $2.09B vs the actual $1.71B — an error of 22.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($1.7B) came in 23% below the spending-based forecast ($2.1B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$2.09B	$1.71B	$1.21B–$3.61B	+59.1%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$1.54B		$711.2M–$3.32B	+8.7%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$1.73B		$672.3M–$4.43B	+15.2%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$1.53B		$514.7M–$4.54B	+1.0%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$2.32B		$686.2M–$7.83B	+35.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Beone Medicines ltd.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9522	-4.8%	-4.8% below trend	8
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0049	+0.5%	In line with trend	7
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0431	+4.3%	+4.3% above trend	8
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0097	+1.0%	In line with trend	8

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 36 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 2.275x • R&D elasticity: -3.7417x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch