What is PR's forecasted revenue?

Permian Resources Corporation is forecasted to generate $3.58B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -37.7% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the PR revenue forecast model?

The model has 12.4% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.0B versus the actual $1.9B.

Permian Resources Corporation PR

Revenue Intelligence Report • 39 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Permian Resources Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $1.9B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $3.6B across the next four quarters (-37.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 44.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$3.58B

-37.7% YoY

G&A Multiplier

$37.29 per $1

Training Fit

12.4% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.03B vs the actual $1.86B — an error of 44.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Permian Resources Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($1.9B) came in 44% above the spending-based forecast ($1.0B). This suggests that Permian Resources Corporation's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$1.03B	$1.86B	$611.1M–$1.75B	-13.6%	✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$953.1M		$512.6M–$1.77B	-27.9%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$985.4M		$487.6M–$1.99B	-15.7%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$912.9M		$404.9M–$2.06B	-34.2%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$724.7M		$278.2M–$1.89B	-61.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Permian Resources Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.022	+2.2%	In line with trend	10
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0429	+4.3%	+4.3% above trend	9
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9705	-2.9%	In line with trend	9
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9629	-3.7%	-3.7% below trend	10

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 39 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: -0.7305x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -44.3%.

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