What is QSR's forecasted revenue?

Restaurant Brands International Inc. is forecasted to generate $9.61B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -1.0% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the QSR revenue forecast model?

The model has 2.8% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.4B versus the actual $2.5B.

Restaurant Brands International Inc. QSR

Revenue Intelligence Report • 13 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Restaurant Brands International Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $2.5B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $9.6B across the next four quarters (-1.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$9.61B

-1.0% YoY

G&A Multiplier

$4.94 per $1

Training Fit

2.8% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $2.41B vs the actual $2.52B — an error of 4.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Restaurant Brands International Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$2.41B	$2.52B	$2.25B–$2.57B	-0.1%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$2.44B		$2.21B–$2.67B	-0.5%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$2.48B		$2.20B–$2.76B	+0.7%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$2.28B		$1.96B–$2.60B	+0.7%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$2.41B		$2.04B–$2.77B	-4.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Restaurant Brands International Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9832	-1.7%	In line with trend	3
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0102	+1.0%	In line with trend	2
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0351	+3.5%	+3.5% above trend	2
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9944	-0.6%	In line with trend	3

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 13 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 0.3043x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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