What is RBA's forecasted revenue?

Rb Global, Inc. is forecasted to generate $7.21B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +48.7% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the RBA revenue forecast model?

The model has 7.8% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.5B versus the actual $1.3B.

Rb Global, Inc. RBA

Revenue Intelligence Report • 42 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Rb Global, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.3B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $7.2B across the next four quarters (+48.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 11.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$7.21B

+48.7% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

1.73x

Training Fit

7.8% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.47B vs the actual $1.32B — an error of 11.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Rb Global, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$1.47B	$1.32B	$1.20B–$1.80B	+23.9%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$1.51B		$1.14B–$2.02B	+38.5%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$2.10B		$1.48B–$2.98B	+74.4%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$1.47B		$980.0M–$2.20B	+19.0%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$2.13B		$1.35B–$3.35B	+61.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Rb Global, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9782	-2.2%	In line with trend	10
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0324	+3.2%	+3.2% above trend	9
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9975	-0.2%	In line with trend	9
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9768	-2.3%	In line with trend	9

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 42 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.8631x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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