What is RBC's forecasted revenue?

Rbc Bearings Incorporated is forecasted to generate $2.19B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +12.3% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the RBC revenue forecast model?

The model has 4.6% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $0.5B versus the actual $0.5B.

Rbc Bearings Incorporated RBC

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-27

Rbc Bearings Incorporated's latest quarterly revenue is $520M for the period ending 2026-06-27. The model projects $2.2B across the next four quarters (+12.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-27. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$2.19B

+12.3% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

0.99x

Training Fit

4.6% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2027): The model predicted $510.5M vs the actual $519.5M — an error of 1.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Rbc Bearings Incorporated does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2026-06-27	$510.5M	$519.5M	$448.1M–$581.6M	+17.1%	✓ In range
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2026-09-27	$522.9M		$434.8M–$628.7M	+14.8%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2026-12-27	$529.6M		$422.5M–$663.8M	+14.7%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-27	$570.1M		$439.2M–$739.9M	+10.1%
Q1 FY2028 Period end 2027-06-27	$571.7M		$427.1M–$765.1M	+10.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Rbc Bearings Incorporated's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Apr–Jun)	0.9881	-1.2%	In line with trend	16
FQ2 (Jul–Sep)	0.9957	-0.4%	In line with trend	17
FQ3 (Oct–Dec)	0.9712	-2.9%	In line with trend	17
FQ4 (Jan–Mar)	1.0401	+4.0%	+4.0% above trend	17

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.1268x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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