What is RBLX's forecasted revenue?

Roblox Corporation is forecasted to generate $6.56B in FY revenue, representing +34.2% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the RBLX revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 2.7% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.4B versus the actual $1.4B.

Roblox Corporation RBLX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 24 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is forecast to reach about $6.6 billion for the year, a 34.2% year-over-year gain that signals strong top-line momentum. The latest quarter delivered $1.415 billion in revenue, and the holdout forecast of $1.4 billion matched within 2.9% error (MAPE 2.7%), indicating solid predictive accuracy. Under the linear model, SG&A spending shows a very favorable long-run ROI, adding about $7.39 in long-run revenue per $1 spent, while R&D spending has a negative long-run impact of about $0.99 per $1 spent. The outlook remains positive if SG&A investments continue to translate into growth, though the negative implied ROI on R&D suggests a need to reallocate or realign R&D spend with monetization drivers to sustain the trajectory.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Roblox Corporation's revenue with exceptional precision (2.7% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $7.39 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$6.56B

+34.2% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$-0.99 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$7.39 per $1

Model Accuracy

2.7% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.4B vs the actual $1.4B — an error of 2.9%.

⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$1.4B	$1.4B	$1.3B – $1.4B	+39.0%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$1.5B		$1.4B – $1.6B	+43.4%
Q3 2026	$1.6B		$1.5B – $1.7B	+51.2%
Q4 2026	$1.7B		$1.6B – $1.8B	+25.0%
Q1 2027	$1.7B		$1.6B – $1.9B	+23.1%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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