What is RBLX's forecasted revenue?

Roblox Corporation is forecasted to generate $10.0B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +76.5% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the RBLX revenue forecast model?

The model has 3.1% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.9B versus the actual $1.5B.

Roblox Corporation RBLX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 26 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Roblox Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $1.5B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $10.0B across the next four quarters (+76.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 28.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$10.0B

+76.5% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$-0.46 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$9.21 per $1

Training Fit

3.1% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.89B vs the actual $1.47B — an error of 28.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($1.5B) came in 29% below the spending-based forecast ($1.9B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$1.89B	$1.47B	$1.83B–$1.95B	+75.0%	✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$2.22B		$2.13B–$2.30B	+62.9%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$2.20B		$2.10B–$2.30B	+55.3%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$2.50B		$2.38B–$2.61B	+73.1%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$3.12B		$3.00B–$3.25B	+112.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Roblox Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.973	-2.7%	In line with trend	6
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0022	+0.2%	In line with trend	5
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0206	+2.1%	In line with trend	5
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9991	-0.1%	In line with trend	5

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 26 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.6875x • R&D elasticity: -0.7245x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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