RDDT · Bayesian revenue outlook

Reddit, Inc.: Bayesian forecast status

Model review 2026-11-04 · Data cutoff 2026-09-30

Latest verified revenue: $894.96M for the quarter ended 2026-09-30. Reported source.

Forecasts are conditional on the listed data cutoff. Sources were refreshed for this model run on 2026-11-04; the cutoff above identifies the latest verified revenue observation used for this model review. Some forecast quarters may already have ended by the computation date. Read each target date before treating an estimate as a future-quarter outlook.

Bayesian forecast withheld. Only 15 consecutive positive comparable revenue quarters; at least 20 required.

No Bayesian interval or simulated path is presented for this vintage. The earlier report below remains available for context; its ranges are not Bayesian prediction intervals.

Management guidance versus reported revenue

Earliest located quarterly guidance among sampled SEC earnings releases; earlier/revised guidance and call-only statements may be missing. Annual and segment-only outlooks excluded.

Management ranges are stated targets, not probability intervals. The revenue model is fitted independently; verified guidance is superimposed for comparison. Historical bias uses the earliest located guidance for each quarter: (guidance midpoint − actual revenue) / actual revenue. Positive values mean guidance above actual results; negative values mean guidance below actual results. This describes outcomes, not management intent.

Reddit, Inc. management guidance compared with actual revenue and historical guidance bias

7 matched quarters · mean guidance bias -9.01% · mean absolute error 9.01%. Actual revenue fell inside 0.0% of 7 published ranges.

This is a descriptive sample, not evidence of a permanent management bias or a calibrated probability range. Call-only guidance and earlier revisions may be missing; guidance and results can reflect different business assumptions.

Guidance vintages and actual results
Issued / filedTarget quarterManagement guidanceActual revenueBiasSource
2025-02-122025-03-31$360.00M–$370.00M$392.36M-6.97%Company release
2025-05-012025-06-30$410.00M–$430.00M$499.63M-15.94%Company release
2025-07-312025-09-30$535.00M–$545.00M$584.91M-7.68%Company release
2025-10-302025-12-31$655.00M–$665.00M$725.61M-9.04%Company release
2026-02-052026-03-31$595.00M–$605.00M$663.41M-9.56%Company release
2026-04-302026-06-30$715.00M–$725.00M$804.90M-10.55%Company release
2026-07-302026-09-30$860.00M–$870.00M$894.96M-3.35%Company release
All located quarterly guidance announcements

Each announcement retains its original date and amounts. Later revisions remain separate; only the earliest located announcement for each target enters the bias average. An initial forecast may predate this research sample.

Issued / filedTarget quarterGuidanceVintageSource
2025-02-122025-03-31$360.00M–$370.00MEarliest locatedCompany release
2025-05-012025-06-30$410.00M–$430.00MEarliest locatedCompany release
2025-07-312025-09-30$535.00M–$545.00MEarliest locatedCompany release
2025-10-302025-12-31$655.00M–$665.00MEarliest locatedCompany release
2026-02-052026-03-31$595.00M–$605.00MEarliest locatedCompany release
2026-04-302026-06-30$715.00M–$725.00MEarliest locatedCompany release
2026-07-302026-09-30$860.00M–$870.00MEarliest locatedCompany release
2026-10-292026-12-31$1.000B–$1.030BEarliest locatedCompany release

Preserved Bayesian forecast vintage

Computed 2026-11-04 using revenue through 2026-06-30. These original numbers are retained unchanged to allow subsequent scoring; they were not refitted with the new results. Forecasts computed after a target quarter ended are retrospective estimates, not pre-release predictions.

The prior Bayesian forecast was withheld: Only 14 consecutive positive revenue quarters are available; this rollout requires at least 20.

Earlier company analysis · preserved vintage 2026-10-14

The report below retains its original forecasts, validation and company-specific discussion. Those revenue estimates use a different model or information cutoff; they are separate from the Bayesian outlook above. Any EPS model below has not been recalculated using the new Bayesian revenue paths.

Reddit, Inc. RDDT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 14 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Earlier summary (2026-10-14): Reddit, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $805M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $5.5B across the next four quarters (+97.9% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 7.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$5.50B
+97.9% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$-7.15 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$2.88 per $1
Training Fit
4.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $866.7M vs the actual $804.9M — an error of 7.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

RDDT Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $866.7M $804.9M $657.8M–$1.14B +73.5% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $995.1M $718.2M–$1.38B +70.1%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.37B $797.9M–$2.35B +88.9%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $1.31B $795.3M–$2.14B +96.9%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $1.83B $836.9M–$3.99B +127.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Reddit, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9724 -2.8% In line with trend 4
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9835 -1.7% In line with trend 3
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0177 +1.8% In line with trend 3
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0582 +5.8% +5.8% above trend 3

Spending and Revenue

RDDT Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 14 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.0507x • R&D elasticity: -0.7067x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 7.7%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 14 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.