What is RDDT's forecasted revenue?

Reddit, Inc. is forecasted to generate $5.50B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +97.9% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the RDDT revenue forecast model?

The model has 4.3% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $0.9B versus the actual $0.8B.

Reddit, Inc. RDDT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 14 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Reddit, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $805M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $5.5B across the next four quarters (+97.9% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 7.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$5.50B

+97.9% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$-7.15 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$2.88 per $1

Training Fit

4.3% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $866.7M vs the actual $804.9M — an error of 7.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$866.7M	$804.9M	$657.8M–$1.14B	+73.5%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$995.1M		$718.2M–$1.38B	+70.1%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$1.37B		$797.9M–$2.35B	+88.9%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$1.31B		$795.3M–$2.14B	+96.9%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$1.83B		$836.9M–$3.99B	+127.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Reddit, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9724	-2.8%	In line with trend	4
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9835	-1.7%	In line with trend	3
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0177	+1.8%	In line with trend	3
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0582	+5.8%	+5.8% above trend	3

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 14 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.0507x • R&D elasticity: -0.7067x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 7.7%.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch