What is RGLD's forecasted revenue?

Royal Gold, Inc is forecasted to generate $4.36B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +181.7% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the RGLD revenue forecast model?

The model has 6.3% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $0.5B versus the actual $0.5B.

Royal Gold, Inc RGLD

Revenue Intelligence Report • 36 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Royal Gold, Inc's latest quarterly revenue is $451M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $4.4B across the next four quarters (+181.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 16.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$4.36B

+181.7% YoY

G&A Elasticity

1.57x

Training Fit

6.3% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $523.0M vs the actual $450.5M — an error of 16.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Royal Gold, Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($0.5B) came in 16% below the spending-based forecast ($0.5B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$523.0M	$450.5M	$396.9M–$689.2M	+149.5%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$650.9M		$458.4M–$924.3M	+158.2%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$1.00B		$702.5M–$1.43B	+167.3%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$1.26B		$822.8M–$1.93B	+168.4%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$1.44B		$849.4M–$2.46B	+220.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Royal Gold, Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.0244	+2.4%	In line with trend	9
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9989	-0.1%	In line with trend	8
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9656	-3.4%	-3.4% below trend	9
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0191	+1.9%	In line with trend	9

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 36 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 0.3554x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 16.1%.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch