What is RIVN's forecasted revenue?

Rivian Automotive, Inc. / De is forecasted to generate $3.72B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -36.7% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the RIVN revenue forecast model?

The model has 0.0% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.1B versus the actual $1.7B.

Rivian Automotive, Inc. / De RIVN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 20 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Rivian Automotive, Inc. / De's latest quarterly revenue is $1.7B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $3.7B across the next four quarters (-36.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 35.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$3.72B

-36.7% YoY

R&D Elasticity

-1.79x

SG&A Elasticity

-1.24x

Training Fit

0.0% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.07B vs the actual $1.66B — an error of 35.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($1.7B) came in 36% above the spending-based forecast ($1.1B). This suggests that Rivian Automotive, Inc. / De's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$1.07B	$1.66B	$1.07B–$1.07B	-18.1%	✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$1.05B		$1.05B–$1.05B	-32.3%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$782.1M		$782.1M–$782.1M	-39.2%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$1.07B		$1.07B–$1.07B	-22.7%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$820.7M		$820.7M–$820.7M	-50.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Rivian Automotive, Inc. / De's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.0	+0.0%	In line with trend	4
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0	+0.0%	In line with trend	3
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0	+0.0%	In line with trend	4
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0	+0.0%	In line with trend	4

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 20 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -14.0983x • R&D elasticity: 13.8648x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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