What is RKLB's forecasted revenue?

Rocket Lab Corporation is forecasted to generate $1.10B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +42.6% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the RKLB revenue forecast model?

The model has 2.3% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $0.2B versus the actual $0.2B.

Rocket Lab Corporation RKLB

Revenue Intelligence Report • 24 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Rocket Lab Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $234M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $1.1B across the next four quarters (+42.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 8.2%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$1.10B

+42.6% YoY

R&D Elasticity

0.50x

SG&A Elasticity

1.37x

Training Fit

2.3% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $214.9M vs the actual $234.1M — an error of 8.2%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$214.9M	$234.1M	$201.7M–$229.0M	+48.7%	✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$238.5M		$218.1M–$260.9M	+53.8%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$256.4M		$229.7M–$286.2M	+42.7%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$279.5M		$246.2M–$317.3M	+39.5%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$322.2M		$279.6M–$371.3M	+37.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Rocket Lab Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.998	-0.2%	In line with trend	5
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0027	+0.3%	In line with trend	4
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9999	-0.0%	In line with trend	5
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0092	+0.9%	In line with trend	5

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 24 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.572x • R&D elasticity: -2.1122x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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