What is RKT's forecasted revenue?

Rocket Companies, Inc. is forecasted to generate $12.1B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +20.9% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the RKT revenue forecast model?

The model has 22.4% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.5B versus the actual $2.8B.

Rocket Companies, Inc. RKT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 29 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Rocket Companies, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $2.8B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $12.1B across the next four quarters (+20.9% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 9.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$12.1B

+20.9% YoY

G&A Elasticity

-4.15x

Training Fit

22.4% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $2.52B vs the actual $2.78B — an error of 9.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Note: Rocket Companies, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$2.52B	$2.78B	$1.21B–$5.24B	+73.4%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$2.81B		$1.23B–$6.41B	+74.8%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$3.39B		$1.15B–$9.97B	+25.8%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$3.09B		$1.01B–$9.44B	+5.2%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$2.83B		$884.6M–$9.06B	+1.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Rocket Companies, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.1321	+13.2%	+13.2% above trend	7
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0026	+0.3%	In line with trend	7
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.1078	+10.8%	+10.8% above trend	7
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9967	-0.3%	In line with trend	7

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 29 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 0.7621x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -9.6%.

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