What is ROK's forecasted revenue?

Rockwell Automation, Inc is forecasted to generate $8.53B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -4.9% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the ROK revenue forecast model?

The model has 4.0% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.2B versus the actual $2.3B.

Rockwell Automation, Inc ROK

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Rockwell Automation, Inc's latest quarterly revenue is $2.3B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $8.5B across the next four quarters (-4.9% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 3.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$8.53B

-4.9% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$5.35 per $1

Training Fit

4.0% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $2.23B vs the actual $2.31B — an error of 3.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Rockwell Automation, Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$2.23B	$2.31B	$2.06B–$2.40B	+4.0%	✓ In range
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$2.13B		$1.89B–$2.36B	-8.2%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2026-12-31	$2.10B		$1.80B–$2.39B	-0.4%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$2.10B		$1.76B–$2.44B	-6.2%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$2.21B		$1.83B–$2.59B	-4.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Rockwell Automation, Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Oct–Dec)	0.9681	-3.2%	-3.2% below trend	17
FQ2 (Jan–Mar)	1.0008	+0.1%	In line with trend	17
FQ3 (Apr–Jun)	1.0203	+2.0%	In line with trend	17
FQ4 (Jul–Sep)	1.0176	+1.8%	In line with trend	17

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.769x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch