What is SATS's forecasted revenue?

Echostar Corporation is forecasted to generate $10.1B in FY revenue, representing -32.9% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the SATS revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 30.5% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.9B versus the actual $3.8B.

Echostar Corporation SATS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 66 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

The model indicates revenue drivers from spend, with each $1 of R&D associated with $32.41 of long-run revenue and each $1 of SG&A associated with $10.20, based on 66 quarters of data using a linear framework. The model’s accuracy is limited (MAPE 30.5%), and a holdout test showed predicted $2.9B versus actual $3.8B, a 24% error, signaling near-term forecast unreliability. The FY forecast implies about $10B in revenue, down 32.9% year over year, indicating meaningful near-term headwinds despite the favorable long-run spend signals. Investors should weigh the strong implied ROI on R&D against near-term forecast risk and model uncertainty, focusing on spend efficiency to realize the long-run revenue potential.

Investment Thesis

At 30.5% MAPE, the model captures Echostar Corporation's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $32.41 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $10.20 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$10.1B

-32.9% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$32.41 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$10.20 per $1

Model Accuracy

30.5% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.9B vs the actual $3.8B — an error of 24.0%.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($3.8B) came in 24% above the spending-based forecast ($2.9B). This suggests that Echostar Corporation's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$2.9B	$3.8B	$2.2B – $3.6B	-27.2%	✗ Outside range
Q2 2026	$2.7B		$1.7B – $3.7B	-31.1%
Q3 2026	$2.5B		$1.2B – $3.7B	-33.6%
Q4 2026	$2.3B		$0.8B – $3.7B	-37.4%
Q1 2027	$2.7B		$1.1B – $4.3B	-29.5%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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