What is SBUX's forecasted revenue?

Starbucks Corporation is forecasted to generate $39.4B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +2.8% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the SBUX revenue forecast model?

The model has 4.6% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $10B versus the actual $9.3B.

Starbucks Corporation SBUX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-28

Starbucks Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $9.3B for the period ending 2026-06-28. The model projects $39.4B across the next four quarters (+2.8% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 9.2%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-28. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$39.4B

+2.8% YoY

G&A Multiplier

$13.75 per $1

Training Fit

4.6% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $10.18B vs the actual $9.32B — an error of 9.2%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Starbucks Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-28	$10.18B	$9.32B	$8.69B–$11.92B	+7.6%	✓ In range
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-28	$9.74B		$8.27B–$11.47B	+1.8%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2026-12-28	$9.72B		$8.18B–$11.54B	-2.0%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-28	$9.45B		$7.88B–$11.34B	-0.8%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-28	$10.49B		$8.66B–$12.70B	+12.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Starbucks Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Oct–Dec)	1.0464	+4.6%	+4.6% above trend	18
FQ2 (Jan–Mar)	0.9665	-3.4%	-3.4% below trend	18
FQ3 (Apr–Jun)	1.0058	+0.6%	In line with trend	18
FQ4 (Jul–Sep)	0.9932	-0.7%	In line with trend	18

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 0.8565x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 9.2%.

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