What is SCCO's forecasted revenue?

Southern Copper Corp/ is forecasted to generate $19.0B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +20.6% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the SCCO revenue forecast model?

The model has 7.5% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $4.2B versus the actual $4.3B.

Southern Copper Corp/ SCCO

Revenue Intelligence Report • 38 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Southern Copper Corp/'s latest quarterly revenue is $4.3B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $19.0B across the next four quarters (+20.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$19.0B

+20.6% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$298.54 per $1

Training Fit

7.5% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $4.23B vs the actual $4.29B — an error of 1.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Southern Copper Corp/ does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$4.23B	$4.29B	$3.77B–$4.69B	+38.6%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$4.45B		$3.79B–$5.10B	+31.6%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$4.78B		$3.97B–$5.58B	+23.4%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$4.90B		$3.97B–$5.82B	+15.2%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$4.92B		$3.89B–$5.96B	+14.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Southern Copper Corp/'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.0721	+7.2%	+7.2% above trend	9
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0065	+0.7%	In line with trend	8
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9748	-2.5%	In line with trend	8
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.033	+3.3%	+3.3% above trend	8

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 38 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.9078x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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