What is SOFI's forecasted revenue?

Sofi Technologies, Inc. is forecasted to generate $757.6M in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +24.2% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the SOFI revenue forecast model?

The model has 5.9% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $154M versus the actual $154M.

Sofi Technologies, Inc. SOFI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 25 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Sofi Technologies, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $154M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $758M across the next four quarters (+24.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$757.6M

+24.2% YoY

R&D Elasticity

0.72x

SG&A Elasticity

0.93x

Training Fit

5.9% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $154.4M vs the actual $153.6M — an error of 0.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$154.4M	$153.6M	$131.7M–$180.9M	+1.6%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$173.8M		$138.8M–$217.5M	+10.8%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$184.9M		$140.4M–$243.4M	+8.6%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$198.6M		$144.6M–$272.8M	+53.3%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$200.3M		$140.5M–$285.7M	+30.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Sofi Technologies, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9709	-2.9%	In line with trend	6
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0376	+3.8%	+3.8% above trend	5
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0313	+3.1%	+3.1% above trend	6
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0152	+1.5%	In line with trend	6

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 25 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.2342x • R&D elasticity: -2.6372x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch