What is SPG's forecasted revenue?

Simon Property Group, inc. is forecasted to generate $8.10B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +16.7% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the SPG revenue forecast model?

The model has 4.7% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.8B versus the actual $1.8B.

Simon Property Group, inc. SPG

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Simon Property Group, inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.8B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $8.1B across the next four quarters (+16.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$8.10B

+16.7% YoY

G&A Multiplier

$22.03 per $1

Training Fit

4.7% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.79B vs the actual $1.79B — an error of 0.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Simon Property Group, inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$1.79B	$1.79B	$1.50B–$2.15B	+19.6%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$1.84B		$1.52B–$2.22B	+14.9%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$1.89B		$1.55B–$2.30B	+5.3%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$2.28B		$1.76B–$2.95B	+29.7%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$2.09B		$1.66B–$2.63B	+16.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Simon Property Group, inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9815	-1.9%	In line with trend	18
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9806	-1.9%	In line with trend	18
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0064	+0.6%	In line with trend	18
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0563	+5.6%	+5.6% above trend	18

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 0.1581x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 0.1%.

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