What is TEAM's forecasted revenue?

Atlassian Corporation is forecasted to generate $13.6B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +107.2% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the TEAM revenue forecast model?

The model has 0.0% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.8B versus the actual $1.8B.

Atlassian Corporation TEAM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 20 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Atlassian Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $1.8B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $13.6B across the next four quarters (+107.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 3.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$13.6B

+107.2% YoY

R&D Elasticity

-323.97x

SG&A Elasticity

-193.02x

Training Fit

0.0% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q4 FY2026): The model predicted $1.83B vs the actual $1.77B — an error of 3.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$1.83B	$1.77B	$1.83B–$1.83B	+32.1%	✗ Outside range
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2026-09-30	$2.14B		$2.14B–$2.14B	+49.1%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2026-12-31	$2.65B		$2.65B–$2.65B	+67.3%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$3.84B		$3.84B–$3.84B	+114.9%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$4.99B		$4.99B–$4.99B	+182.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Atlassian Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jul–Sep)	1.0	+0.0%	In line with trend	4
FQ2 (Oct–Dec)	1.0	+0.0%	In line with trend	4
FQ3 (Jan–Mar)	1.0	+0.0%	In line with trend	4
FQ4 (Apr–Jun)	1.0	+0.0%	In line with trend	3

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 20 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.3401x • R&D elasticity: 1.1571x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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