What is TOST's forecasted revenue?

Toast, Inc. is forecasted to generate $7.43B in FY revenue, representing +20.7% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the TOST revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 0.1% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.6B versus the actual $1.6B.

Toast, Inc. TOST

Revenue Intelligence Report • 21 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Toast, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $7.4B, a +20.7% year-over-year change, based on 21 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D ($0.77 per $1) and SG&A ($13.80 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 0.1% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Toast, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (0.1% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $0.77 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $13.80 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$7.43B

+20.7% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$0.77 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$13.80 per $1

Model Accuracy

0.1% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.6B vs the actual $1.6B — an error of 0.8%.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$1.6B	$1.6B	$1.6B – $1.6B	+23.0%	✗ Outside range
Q2 2026	$1.6B		$1.6B – $1.6B	+19.2%
Q3 2026	$1.9B		$1.9B – $1.9B	+23.0%
Q4 2026	$1.9B		$1.9B – $1.9B	+15.2%
Q1 2027	$2.0B		$2.0B – $2.1B	+25.3%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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