What is TPG's forecasted revenue?

Tpg Inc. is forecasted to generate $2.95B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +11.7% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the TPG revenue forecast model?

The model has 2.4% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $0.6B versus the actual $0.7B.

Tpg Inc. TPG

Revenue Intelligence Report • 22 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Tpg Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $705M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $2.9B across the next four quarters (+11.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 10.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$2.95B

+11.7% YoY

G&A Elasticity

1.07x

Training Fit

2.4% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $630.7M vs the actual $705.0M — an error of 10.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Tpg Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$630.7M	$705.0M	$594.2M–$669.4M	+10.8%	✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$675.0M		$620.4M–$734.4M	+13.2%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$805.4M		$726.4M–$893.1M	+12.6%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$718.3M		$637.5M–$809.3M	+15.8%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$746.7M		$653.5M–$853.3M	+5.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Tpg Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9872	-1.3%	In line with trend	5
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9891	-1.1%	In line with trend	4
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.966	-3.4%	-3.4% below trend	4
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.031	+3.1%	+3.1% above trend	4

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 22 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 0.4542x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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