What is TRGP's forecasted revenue?

Targa Resources Corp. is forecasted to generate $15.2B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -9.3% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the TRGP revenue forecast model?

The model has 18.0% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $4.2B versus the actual $4.4B.

Targa Resources Corp. TRGP

Revenue Intelligence Report • 38 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Targa Resources Corp.'s latest quarterly revenue is $4.4B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $15.2B across the next four quarters (-9.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$15.2B

-9.3% YoY

G&A Multiplier

$0.36 per $1

Training Fit

18.0% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $4.24B vs the actual $4.44B — an error of 4.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Targa Resources Corp. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$4.24B	$4.44B	$2.19B–$8.23B	-0.4%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$3.81B		$1.93B–$7.50B	-8.3%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$3.54B		$1.66B–$7.57B	-12.6%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$3.74B		$1.67B–$8.38B	-8.6%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$4.10B		$1.66B–$10.13B	-7.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Targa Resources Corp.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.0402	+4.0%	+4.0% above trend	10
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.8965	-10.3%	-10.3% below trend	9
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0439	+4.4%	+4.4% above trend	9
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0257	+2.6%	In line with trend	9

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 38 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: -1.2029x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -4.5%.

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