What is TWLO's forecasted revenue?

Twilio Inc. is forecasted to generate $6.67B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +19.7% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the TWLO revenue forecast model?

The model has 1.7% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.5B versus the actual $1.5B.

Twilio Inc. TWLO

Revenue Intelligence Report • 45 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Twilio Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.5B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $6.7B across the next four quarters (+19.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$6.67B

+19.7% YoY

R&D Elasticity

0.08x

SG&A Elasticity

0.56x

Training Fit

1.7% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.49B vs the actual $1.50B — an error of 0.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$1.49B	$1.50B	$1.39B–$1.60B	+21.3%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$1.57B		$1.44B–$1.70B	+20.5%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$1.64B		$1.49B–$1.81B	+20.3%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$1.66B		$1.49B–$1.86B	+18.2%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$1.80B		$1.58B–$2.04B	+19.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Twilio Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.0039	+0.4%	In line with trend	11
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9891	-1.1%	In line with trend	11
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9931	-0.7%	In line with trend	11
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0129	+1.3%	In line with trend	11

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 45 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.6863x • R&D elasticity: -0.1309x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -0.6%.

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