Uber Technologies, Inc. UBER

Revenue Intelligence Report • 34 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Uber Technologies, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $14.2B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $50.0B across the next four quarters (-9.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 5.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$50.0B
-9.5% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-8.10x
SG&A Elasticity
-11.99x
Training Fit
5.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $13.44B vs the actual $14.19B — an error of 5.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

UBER Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $13.44B $14.19B $11.86B–$15.24B +6.3% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $14.09B $11.80B–$16.83B +4.7%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $12.75B $10.26B–$15.84B -11.3%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $11.86B $9.23B–$15.24B -10.2%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $11.28B $8.53B–$14.93B -20.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Uber Technologies, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9478 -5.2% -5.2% below trend 8
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0251 +2.5% In line with trend 7
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0095 +1.0% In line with trend 7
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0281 +2.8% In line with trend 7

Spending and Revenue

UBER Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 34 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.2872x • R&D elasticity: 1.3307x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 34 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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