Ubiquiti Inc. UI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 47 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Latest quarterly revenue was $815M. The model attributes revenue growth primarily to SG&A spending, which yields $30.91 of long-run revenue per $1 spent, while R&D spending is modeled as a drag of $1.54 per $1 spent. The model shows solid predictive performance, with a holdout forecast of $790M vs actual $815M (3.0% error) and an overall MAPE of 7.8%. The FY forecast is $3,523M in revenue, up 25.3% year over year, indicating strong top-line momentum and a revenue mix that heavily favors SG&A-driven growth, while R&D efficiency should be monitored.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (7.8% MAPE), suggesting Ubiquiti Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $30.91 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue
$3.52B
+25.3% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$-1.54 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$30.91 per $1
Model Accuracy
7.8% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $790B vs the actual $815B — an error of 3.0%.
⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Revenue Forecast

UI Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $790B $815B $723B – $857B +43.6% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $811B $717B – $905B +35.2%
Q3 2026 $849B $733B – $964B +27.8%
Q4 2026 $907B $773B – $1040B +23.6%
Q1 2027 $957B $807B – $1106B +17.4%

How Spending Drives Revenue

UI Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (linear) with 47 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.