What is UI's forecasted revenue?

Ubiquiti Inc. is forecasted to generate $3.36B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +2.7% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the UI revenue forecast model?

The model has 6.9% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $0.8B versus the actual $0.9B.

Ubiquiti Inc. UI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 64 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Ubiquiti Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $937M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $3.4B across the next four quarters (+2.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 18.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$3.36B

+2.7% YoY

R&D Elasticity

-0.00x

SG&A Elasticity

0.78x

Training Fit

6.9% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q4 FY2026): The model predicted $762.5M vs the actual $937.3M — an error of 18.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($937M) came in 19% above the spending-based forecast ($763M). This suggests that Ubiquiti Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$762.5M	$937.3M	$627.6M–$926.5M	+0.4%	✗ Outside range
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2026-09-30	$828.9M		$629.3M–$1.09B	+13.0%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2026-12-31	$830.7M		$592.8M–$1.16B	+1.9%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$859.7M		$582.3M–$1.27B	+9.1%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$843.5M		$545.7M–$1.30B	-10.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Ubiquiti Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jul–Sep)	0.9921	-0.8%	In line with trend	15
FQ2 (Oct–Dec)	0.9859	-1.4%	In line with trend	16
FQ3 (Jan–Mar)	0.9575	-4.2%	-4.2% below trend	16
FQ4 (Apr–Jun)	0.9943	-0.6%	In line with trend	15

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 64 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.527x • R&D elasticity: -0.3099x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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