What is ULS's forecasted revenue?

Ul Solutions Inc. is forecasted to generate $3.24B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +3.0% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the ULS revenue forecast model?

The model has 1.5% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $0.8B versus the actual $0.8B.

Ul Solutions Inc. ULS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 14 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Ul Solutions Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $816M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $3.2B across the next four quarters (+3.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$3.24B

+3.0% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

1.44x

Training Fit

1.5% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $778.2M vs the actual $816.0M — an error of 4.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Ul Solutions Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$778.2M	$816.0M	$751.4M–$806.0M	+0.3%	✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$798.1M		$759.4M–$838.6M	+1.9%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$815.1M		$767.1M–$866.2M	+3.3%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$806.6M		$752.0M–$865.3M	+6.4%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$820.8M		$758.9M–$887.8M	+0.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Ul Solutions Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9877	-1.2%	In line with trend	3
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0101	+1.0%	In line with trend	2
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0128	+1.3%	In line with trend	3
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9997	-0.0%	In line with trend	3

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 14 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.5921x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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