What is USFD's forecasted revenue?

Us Foods Holding Corp. is forecasted to generate $41.7B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +3.9% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the USFD revenue forecast model?

The model has 2.6% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $9.9B versus the actual $11B.

Us Foods Holding Corp. USFD

Revenue Intelligence Report • 45 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-27

Us Foods Holding Corp.'s latest quarterly revenue is $10.5B for the period ending 2026-06-27. The model projects $41.7B across the next four quarters (+3.9% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 6.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-27. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$41.7B

+3.9% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$7.68 per $1

Training Fit

2.6% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $9.85B vs the actual $10.53B — an error of 6.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Us Foods Holding Corp. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2026-06-27	$9.85B	$10.53B	$9.23B–$10.47B	-2.3%	✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2026-09-27	$10.39B		$9.51B–$11.27B	+2.0%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2026-12-27	$10.27B		$9.20B–$11.35B	+4.8%
Q1 FY2028 Period end 2027-03-27	$10.50B		$9.26B–$11.75B	+9.3%
Q2 FY2028 Period end 2027-06-27	$10.52B		$9.13B–$11.91B	-0.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Us Foods Holding Corp.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Feb–Apr)	0.9886	-1.1%	In line with trend	10
FQ2 (May–Jul)	1.0426	+4.3%	+4.3% above trend	10
FQ3 (Aug–Oct)	0.9978	-0.2%	In line with trend	10
FQ4 (Nov–Jan)	0.9957	-0.4%	In line with trend	10

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 45 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.3089x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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