United Therapeutics Corporation UTHR
Revenue Intelligence Report • 43 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
United Therapeutics Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $3.3B, a +4.1% year-over-year change, based on 43 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 4.7% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.7% MAPE), suggesting United Therapeutics Corporation's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D spending currently shows a negative elasticity (-0.81x), which can indicate heavy investment in long-cycle initiatives not yet reflected in revenue.
Next FY Revenue
$3.31B
+4.1% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-0.81x
SG&A Elasticity
-0.23x
Model Accuracy
4.7% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $805B vs the actual $790B — an error of 1.8%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $805B | $790B | $713B – $908B | +9.3% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $813B | $686B – $964B | +2.4% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $823B | $668B – $1014B | +3.0% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $833B | $655B – $1060B | +4.2% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $845B | $645B – $1106B | +6.9% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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