What is V's forecasted revenue?

Visa Inc. is forecasted to generate $48.6B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +13.0% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the V revenue forecast model?

The model has 2.7% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $11B versus the actual $11B.

Visa Inc. V

Revenue Intelligence Report • 72 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-31

Visa Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $11.2B for the period ending 2026-03-31. The model projects $48.6B across the next four quarters (+13.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-03-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$48.6B

+13.0% YoY

G&A Elasticity

0.37x

Training Fit

2.7% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $11.05B vs the actual $11.23B — an error of 1.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Visa Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-03-31	$11.05B	$11.23B	$9.84B–$12.41B	+15.2%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$11.53B		$10.10B–$13.16B	+13.3%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$12.01B		$10.31B–$14.00B	+12.0%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2026-12-31	$12.37B		$10.39B–$14.72B	+13.5%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$12.71B		$10.42B–$15.48B	+13.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Visa Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Oct–Dec)	1.0209	+2.1%	In line with trend	18
FQ2 (Jan–Mar)	0.997	-0.3%	In line with trend	17
FQ3 (Apr–Jun)	0.9971	-0.3%	In line with trend	18
FQ4 (Jul–Sep)	1.0112	+1.1%	In line with trend	18

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 72 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 0.0662x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -1.6%.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch