Vici Properties Inc. VICI
Revenue Intelligence Report • 33 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Revenue is driven by the scale of VICI's property portfolio, with the model attributing outsized revenue impact to SG&A spending: $1 of SG&A is projected to generate $71.88 of long-run revenue. The model's holdout test yielded a predicted $0.9B against actual $1.0B (7.1% error), and overall MAPE of 4.7%, indicating reasonable predictive power with some room for refinement. Latest quarterly revenue was $1.013B, while the full-year forecast stands at $3.9B, a 2.4% year-over-year decline, signaling a modestly softer revenue trajectory. Investors should monitor SG&A utilization and portfolio performance to confirm that the high implied ROI translates into sustainable revenue growth.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.7% MAPE), suggesting Vici Properties Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $71.88 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $0.9B | $1.0B | $0.9B – $1.0B | -3.5% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $0.9B | $0.8B – $1.0B | -5.4% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.0B | $0.8B – $1.1B | -3.0% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.0B | $0.9B – $1.1B | -0.7% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.0B | $0.8B – $1.2B | -0.8% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
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