What is VICI's forecasted revenue?

Vici Properties Inc. is forecasted to generate $3.88B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -5.3% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the VICI revenue forecast model?

The model has 4.6% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.0B versus the actual $1.1B.

Vici Properties Inc. VICI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 35 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Vici Properties Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.1B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $3.9B across the next four quarters (-5.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 6.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$3.88B

-5.3% YoY

G&A Multiplier

$71.93 per $1

Training Fit

4.6% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $994.7M vs the actual $1.06B — an error of 6.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Vici Properties Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$994.7M	$1.06B	$922.2M–$1.07B	-0.7%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$965.8M		$863.2M–$1.07B	-4.1%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$972.8M		$847.2M–$1.10B	-4.0%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$979.1M		$834.1M–$1.12B	-3.9%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$964.1M		$802.0M–$1.13B	-8.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Vici Properties Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.98	-2.0%	In line with trend	8
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0088	+0.9%	In line with trend	7
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0038	+0.4%	In line with trend	7
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9801	-2.0%	In line with trend	8

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 35 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 0.7494x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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