What is WCN's forecasted revenue?

Waste Connections, Inc. is forecasted to generate $10.3B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +5.6% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the WCN revenue forecast model?

The model has 1.8% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.5B versus the actual $2.6B.

Waste Connections, Inc. WCN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 45 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Waste Connections, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $2.6B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $10.3B across the next four quarters (+5.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$10.3B

+5.6% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

0.96x

Training Fit

1.8% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $2.52B vs the actual $2.56B — an error of 1.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Waste Connections, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$2.52B	$2.56B	$2.40B–$2.64B	+4.8%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$2.57B		$2.40B–$2.74B	+4.4%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$2.52B		$2.32B–$2.74B	+6.2%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$2.55B		$2.32B–$2.80B	+7.5%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$2.68B		$2.41B–$2.98B	+4.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Waste Connections, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9926	-0.7%	In line with trend	10
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0151	+1.5%	In line with trend	10
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.007	+0.7%	In line with trend	10
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9907	-0.9%	In line with trend	10

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 45 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.3276x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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