Western Digital Corp WDC

Revenue Intelligence Report • 12 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-03

Western Digital Corp's latest quarterly revenue is $3.7B for the period ending 2026-07-03. The model projects $10.7B across the next four quarters (-17.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 33.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-03. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$10.7B
-17.4% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$7.06 per $1
Training Fit
2.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q4 FY2026): The model predicted $2.48B vs the actual $3.75B — an error of 33.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Western Digital Corp does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($3.7B) came in 34% above the spending-based forecast ($2.5B). This suggests that Western Digital Corp's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

WDC Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-07-03		 $2.48B $3.75B $2.06B–$2.97B -5.0% ✗ Outside range
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-10-03		 $2.86B $2.43B–$3.38B +1.7%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-01-03		 $2.61B $2.07B–$3.30B -13.4%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-04-03		 $3.32B $2.72B–$4.05B -0.5%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-07-03		 $1.88B $1.21B–$2.93B -49.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Western Digital Corp's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Aug–Oct) 1.0005 +0.1% In line with trend 3
FQ2 (Nov–Jan) 1.0164 +1.6% In line with trend 3
FQ3 (Feb–Apr) 0.9744 -2.6% In line with trend 3
FQ4 (May–Jul) 1.0184 +1.8% In line with trend 2

Spending and Revenue

WDC Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 12 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.1706x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -33.9%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 12 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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