Waste Management Inc WM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Waste Management Inc's latest quarterly revenue is $6.7B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $28.1B across the next four quarters (+9.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.2%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$28.1B
+9.4% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$5.86 per $1
Training Fit
2.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $6.53B vs the actual $6.68B — an error of 2.2%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Waste Management Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

WM Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $6.53B $6.68B $6.31B–$6.76B +1.6% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $6.82B $6.50B–$7.14B +5.9%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $7.03B $6.64B–$7.43B +11.4%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $7.05B $6.60B–$7.51B +13.3%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $7.18B $6.67B–$7.69B +7.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Waste Management Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9829 -1.7% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0333 +3.3% +3.3% above trend 17
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0 -0.0% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9983 -0.2% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

WM Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.1645x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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