Walmart Inc. WMT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-31

Walmart Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $186B for the period ending 2026-07-31. The model projects $772B across the next four quarters (+6.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$772.5B
+6.0% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.57x
Training Fit
1.4% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $186.91B vs the actual $186.10B — an error of 0.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Walmart Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

WMT Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-07-31		 $186.91B $186.10B $180.46B–$193.60B +6.4% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2026-10-31		 $188.85B $179.70B–$198.48B +6.2%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-01-31		 $198.58B $186.85B–$211.04B +5.1%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-04-30		 $186.46B $173.80B–$200.04B +6.1%
Q2 FY2028
Period end 2027-07-31		 $198.60B $183.59B–$214.84B +6.7%
🎙️

Latest Earnings Call

Q4 2026
Stephanie Schiller Wissink

Senior Vice President & Head-Investor Relations, Walmart, Inc. Welcome, everyone. Joining me today from our home office in Bentonville are our CEO, John Furner; and CFO, John David Rainey. We will begin with highlights of the fourth quarter and full year. Then we will open the line for your questions.

View full transcript → 76 sections · 11491 words

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Walmart Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Feb–Apr) 0.9948 -0.5% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (May–Jul) 0.997 -0.3% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Aug–Oct) 1.0034 +0.3% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Nov–Jan) 1.0064 +0.6% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

WMT Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.5125x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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