What is WWD's forecasted revenue?

Woodward, Inc. is forecasted to generate $5.29B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +26.2% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the WWD revenue forecast model?

The model has 5.0% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.2B versus the actual $1.1B.

Woodward, Inc. WWD

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Woodward, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.1B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $5.3B across the next four quarters (+26.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 6.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$5.29B

+26.2% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$7.52 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$11.48 per $1

Training Fit

5.0% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $1.19B vs the actual $1.11B — an error of 6.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$1.19B	$1.11B	$1.11B–$1.26B	+29.5%	✓ In range
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$1.21B		$1.10B–$1.32B	+21.6%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2026-12-31	$1.24B		$1.11B–$1.37B	+24.4%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$1.36B		$1.21B–$1.51B	+24.9%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$1.48B		$1.31B–$1.65B	+33.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Woodward, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Oct–Dec)	0.9647	-3.5%	-3.5% below trend	16
FQ2 (Jan–Mar)	1.011	+1.1%	In line with trend	16
FQ3 (Apr–Jun)	1.0324	+3.2%	+3.2% above trend	16
FQ4 (Jul–Sep)	1.0228	+2.3%	In line with trend	16

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.2225x • R&D elasticity: 0.7466x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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