What is YUM's forecasted revenue?

Yum! Brands, Inc. is forecasted to generate $7.12B in FY revenue, representing -13.3% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the YUM revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 234.8% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.7B versus the actual $2.5B.

Yum! Brands, Inc. YUM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 65 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue appears driven by SG&A spending, with the long-run revenue impact estimated at $6.26 for every $1 of SG&A. The model is linear but delivers poor accuracy: MAPE 234.8%, and a holdout test error of 31.2% (predicted $1.7B vs actual $2.5B). Latest quarterly revenue is $2.515B. For the full year, the forecast is $7.1B, a 13.3% decline year over year, signaling a cautious outlook despite the SG&A ROI signal.

Investment Thesis

At 234.8% MAPE, the model captures Yum! Brands, Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $6.26 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$7.12B

-13.3% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$6.26 per $1

Model Accuracy

234.8% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.7B vs the actual $2.5B — an error of 31.2%.

Note: Yum! Brands, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($2.5B) came in 31% above the spending-based forecast ($1.7B). This suggests that Yum! Brands, Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$1.7B	$2.5B	$0.2B – $3.3B	-26.7%	✓ In range
Q1 2026	$1.8B		$-0.3B – $4.0B	+1.8%
Q2 2026	$1.7B		$-0.9B – $4.4B	-10.6%
Q3 2026	$1.8B		$-1.2B – $4.9B	-8.6%
Q4 2026	$1.8B		$-1.6B – $5.2B	-29.9%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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