What is YUMC's forecasted revenue?

Yum China Holdings, Inc. is forecasted to generate $12.8B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +3.0% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the YUMC revenue forecast model?

The model has 5.6% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.9B versus the actual $3.1B.

Yum China Holdings, Inc. YUMC

Revenue Intelligence Report • 36 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Yum China Holdings, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $3.1B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $12.8B across the next four quarters (+3.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 6.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$12.8B

+3.0% YoY

G&A Multiplier

$15.82 per $1

Training Fit

5.6% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $2.92B vs the actual $3.14B — an error of 6.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Yum China Holdings, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$2.92B	$3.14B	$2.60B–$3.25B	+4.9%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$3.41B		$2.95B–$3.87B	+6.3%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$2.99B		$2.43B–$3.56B	+6.0%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$3.37B		$2.72B–$4.02B	+3.0%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$3.04B		$2.31B–$3.77B	-3.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Yum China Holdings, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.0516	+5.2%	+5.2% above trend	8
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0156	+1.6%	In line with trend	7
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9846	-1.5%	In line with trend	8
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9676	-3.2%	-3.2% below trend	8

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 36 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 0.2811x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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