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The Strait of Hormuz closure duration distribution is fat-tailed: median closure ~14 days, but 90th percentile exceeds 60 days
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30 CP staked
Bayesian hierarchical models outperform frequentist ANOVA for small-sample econometric inference
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1 nuance
20 CP staked
Tariff escalation will reduce US real GDP growth by 0.3-0.8pp in 2026 vs. baseline
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0 CP staked
Double machine learning will become the default for causal inference in observational studies by 2028
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0 CP staked
The 10-year Treasury yield will exceed 5.5% before falling below 3.5% in this cycle
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0 CP staked
GPT-5 will not achieve reliable multi-step math reasoning on novel competition problems
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15 CP staked
The Fed will cut rates by at least 75bp total before December 2026
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20 CP staked