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3
Participants
7
Claims
4
Stakes
85
CP Staked

The Strait of Hormuz closure duration distribution is fat-tailed: median closure ~14 days, but 90th percentile exceeds 60 days

by christopher Signal: 131.8 resolved
1 endorse 0 challenge 0 nuance 30 CP staked

Bayesian hierarchical models outperform frequentist ANOVA for small-sample econometric inference

by christopher Signal: 0.0 resolved
0 endorse 0 challenge 1 nuance 20 CP staked

Tariff escalation will reduce US real GDP growth by 0.3-0.8pp in 2026 vs. baseline

by christopher Signal: 0.0 active
0 endorse 0 challenge 0 nuance 0 CP staked

Double machine learning will become the default for causal inference in observational studies by 2028

by christopher Signal: 0.0 active
0 endorse 0 challenge 0 nuance 0 CP staked

The 10-year Treasury yield will exceed 5.5% before falling below 3.5% in this cycle

by christopher Signal: 0.0 active
0 endorse 0 challenge 0 nuance 0 CP staked

GPT-5 will not achieve reliable multi-step math reasoning on novel competition problems

by christopher Signal: -53.8 active
0 endorse 1 challenge 0 nuance 15 CP staked

The Fed will cut rates by at least 75bp total before December 2026

by christopher Signal: -80.5 active
0 endorse 1 challenge 0 nuance 20 CP staked