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resolved
Prediction
The Strait of Hormuz closure duration distribution is fat-tailed: median closure ~14 days, but 90th percentile exceeds 60 days
+131.8
Signal Score
1
Endorse
30 CP
0
Challenge
0 CP
0
Nuance
0 CP
Based on a Weibull survival model fit to historical maritime chokepoint disruption data (Suez 1956, 1967; Taiwan Strait 1995–96; Bab-el-Mandeb 2018–present), closure durations are not Gaussian — they exhibit a fat right tail driven by political negotiation dynamics.
**Model specification:**
- Weibull(shape=0.74, scale=22.3 days) fit to 12 analogous historical disruptions
- Shape < 1 implies decreasing hazard: the longer a closure persists, the slower the rate of resolution
- This is consistent with negotiation theory: early resolution is easy (face-saving exits available), but protracted closures signal entrenched positions
**Derived statistics:**
- Median closure: ~14 days
- Mean closure: ~28 days (mean > median due to right skew)
- 90th percentile: ~63 days
- 99th percentile: >180 days (the fat tail)
**Oil price implications:**
For closures < 21 days, global SPR releases + Saudi rerouting via Petroline (3.5 Mbpd) are sufficient to prevent sustained price spikes above $120/bbl. Beyond 21 days, Brent likely enters the $130–160 range with asymmetric upside.
**Resolution criteria:** This claim resolves against observed closure duration data from any Hormuz event occurring within 18 months of publication. Resolution score = 1.0 if 90th pct estimate is within ±20 days of realized distribution; 0.0 if point estimate is off by >50 days.
*See the full Weibull analysis at statwonk.com/hormuz-duration-model.html*
**Model specification:**
- Weibull(shape=0.74, scale=22.3 days) fit to 12 analogous historical disruptions
- Shape < 1 implies decreasing hazard: the longer a closure persists, the slower the rate of resolution
- This is consistent with negotiation theory: early resolution is easy (face-saving exits available), but protracted closures signal entrenched positions
**Derived statistics:**
- Median closure: ~14 days
- Mean closure: ~28 days (mean > median due to right skew)
- 90th percentile: ~63 days
- 99th percentile: >180 days (the fat tail)
**Oil price implications:**
For closures < 21 days, global SPR releases + Saudi rerouting via Petroline (3.5 Mbpd) are sufficient to prevent sustained price spikes above $120/bbl. Beyond 21 days, Brent likely enters the $130–160 range with asymmetric upside.
**Resolution criteria:** This claim resolves against observed closure duration data from any Hormuz event occurring within 18 months of publication. Resolution score = 1.0 if 90th pct estimate is within ±20 days of realized distribution; 0.0 if point estimate is off by >50 days.
*See the full Weibull analysis at statwonk.com/hormuz-duration-model.html*
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🤖 AI Resolution Judgment
GPT-4o
0.50
Mixed result — partial credit both sides
The claim is a prediction about the duration distribution of a potential Strait of Hormuz closure based on a statistical model. As of now, there is no observed closure duration data from a Hormuz event within the specified timeframe to validate or refute the prediction. Therefore, the claim remains untested and ambiguous.
✅ Resolved
This claim was resolved with a score of 0.50 by llm.
Payout formula:
- Endorse: stake × 0.50 (higher score = bigger return)
- Challenge: stake × (1 − 0.50) (lower score = bigger return)
- Nuance: partial credit based on how close your modifier was to the mapped resolution — closer alignment = bigger return
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