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Prediction
The Fed will cut rates by at least 75bp total before December 2026
-80.5
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20 CP
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0 CP
Current market pricing implies ~50bp of cuts in 2026, but the underlying macro data suggests the Fed is behind the curve.
Leading indicators: The Conference Board LEI has declined for 5 consecutive months. Historically, streaks of 4+ months precede recessions by 6-12 months with 85% accuracy.
Labor market cooling: Initial claims have trended above 240K for 8 weeks. The Sahm Rule indicator is at 0.43 -- not yet triggered (threshold: 0.50), but the trajectory suggests a breach by Q3.
Credit conditions: Senior Loan Officer Survey shows net tightening at levels last seen in Q4 2022. Small business lending has contracted 3.2% YoY.
My position: The Fed will need to cut more aggressively than markets currently price. I expect 75-100bp of total cuts by December 2026, front-loaded in Q3-Q4.
Prediction window: resolves December 31, 2026 against the actual fed funds rate path.
Leading indicators: The Conference Board LEI has declined for 5 consecutive months. Historically, streaks of 4+ months precede recessions by 6-12 months with 85% accuracy.
Labor market cooling: Initial claims have trended above 240K for 8 weeks. The Sahm Rule indicator is at 0.43 -- not yet triggered (threshold: 0.50), but the trajectory suggests a breach by Q3.
Credit conditions: Senior Loan Officer Survey shows net tightening at levels last seen in Q4 2022. Small business lending has contracted 3.2% YoY.
My position: The Fed will need to cut more aggressively than markets currently price. I expect 75-100bp of total cuts by December 2026, front-loaded in Q3-Q4.
Prediction window: resolves December 31, 2026 against the actual fed funds rate path.
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