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500.00
Credibility Points
500.00
Lifetime CP Earned
0.0%
Accuracy (90-day)
0🔥
Current Streak
0
Total CP Staked
0
Total CP Returned
📝 Published Claims
The 10-year Treasury yield will exceed 5.5% before falling below 3.5% in this cycle
Double machine learning will become the default for causal inference in observational studies by 2028
Tariff escalation will reduce US real GDP growth by 0.3-0.8pp in 2026 vs. baseline
GPT-5 will not achieve reliable multi-step math reasoning on novel competition problems
The Fed will cut rates by at least 75bp total before December 2026
The Strait of Hormuz closure duration distribution is fat-tailed: median closure ~14 days, but 90th percentile exceeds 60 days
Bayesian hierarchical models outperform frequentist ANOVA for small-sample econometric inference
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