Blackrock, Inc. BLK

Revenue Intelligence Report • 12 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Blackrock, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $7.1B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $29.3B across the next four quarters (+7.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 22.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$29.3B
+7.4% YoY
G&A Multiplier
$11.52 per $1
Training Fit
3.5% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $5.48B vs the actual $7.08B — an error of 22.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.
Note: Blackrock, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($7.1B) came in 23% above the spending-based forecast ($5.5B). This suggests that Blackrock, Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

BLK Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $5.48B $7.08B $4.98B–$5.98B +1.1% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $6.24B $5.53B–$6.95B -4.1%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $7.51B $6.64B–$8.38B +7.1%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $8.33B $7.32B–$9.33B +24.3%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $7.26B $6.14B–$8.38B +2.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Blackrock, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9724 -2.8% In line with trend 3
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9893 -1.1% In line with trend 2
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0422 +4.2% +4.2% above trend 2
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0319 +3.2% +3.2% above trend 2

Spending and Revenue

BLK Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 12 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 0.0007x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 12 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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