Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. ICE

Revenue Intelligence Report • 54 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $3.6B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $13.0B across the next four quarters (-3.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$13.0B
-3.5% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.79x
Training Fit
5.5% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $3.46B vs the actual $3.61B — an error of 4.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

ICE Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $3.46B $3.61B $3.02B–$3.97B +6.1% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $3.09B $2.54B–$3.74B +2.6%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $3.20B $2.52B–$4.05B +1.7%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $3.40B $2.59B–$4.47B -7.3%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $3.27B $2.41B–$4.44B -9.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0168 +1.7% In line with trend 13
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9578 -4.2% -4.2% below trend 12
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9997 -0.0% In line with trend 12
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0025 +0.2% In line with trend 12

Spending and Revenue

ICE Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 54 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.1619x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 54 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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