Aflac Incorporated AFL

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Aflac Incorporated's latest quarterly revenue is $4.1B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $16.9B across the next four quarters (-6.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 3.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$16.9B
-6.7% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-0.30x
Training Fit
6.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $4.25B vs the actual $4.12B — an error of 3.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.
Note: Aflac Incorporated does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

AFL Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $4.25B $4.12B $3.39B–$5.33B +2.2% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $4.24B $3.36B–$5.36B -10.5%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $4.21B $3.25B–$5.44B -13.6%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $4.22B $3.26B–$5.46B -2.9%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $4.18B $3.16B–$5.53B +1.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Aflac Incorporated's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0118 +1.2% In line with trend 18
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0035 +0.4% In line with trend 18
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0068 +0.7% In line with trend 18
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9852 -1.5% In line with trend 18

Spending and Revenue

AFL Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.0505x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 3.3%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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