What is EFX's forecasted revenue?

Equifax inc. is forecasted to generate $7.07B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +9.6% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the EFX revenue forecast model?

The model has 2.5% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.7B versus the actual $1.7B.

Equifax inc. EFX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 38 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Equifax inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.7B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $7.1B across the next four quarters (+9.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$7.07B

+9.6% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$0.64 per $1

Training Fit

2.5% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.70B vs the actual $1.70B — an error of 0.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Equifax inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$1.70B	$1.70B	$1.62B–$1.78B	+10.7%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$1.71B		$1.60B–$1.83B	+11.0%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$1.74B		$1.60B–$1.88B	+12.3%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$1.78B		$1.62B–$1.94B	+8.1%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$1.83B		$1.65B–$2.01B	+7.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Equifax inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.0228	+2.3%	In line with trend	9
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9934	-0.7%	In line with trend	8
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9907	-0.9%	In line with trend	8
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.989	-1.1%	In line with trend	8

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 38 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.3731x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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